New Jersey Real Estate Report

From CNBC:

February home resales jump much more than expected, despite higher mortgage rates

Sales of previously owned homes in February rose 4.2% from January to 4.26 million units on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis, according to the National Association of Realtors. Industry analysts had expected a drop of 3%.

Sales were 1.2% lower compared with February of last year.

This count is based on closings, so contracts signed in December and January, when mortgage rates were rising and briefly held in the 7% range on the 30-year fixed. Rates today are in the high 6% range.

“Home buyers are slowly entering the market,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, in a release. “Mortgage rates have not changed much, but more inventory and choices are releasing pent-up housing demand.”

Sales were only higher annually in the highest price categories, above $750,000. Sales around the median price were down 3% year over year.

Inventory at the end of February stood at 1.24 million units, an increase of 17% year over year, but still just a 3.5-month supply at the current sales pace. A six-month supply is considered balanced between buyer and seller.

“We are still in a relatively tight market condition,” Yun said.

That tight supply is keeping pressure on prices. The median price of a home sold in February was $398,400, up 3.8% from the same time last year. That is a record high for the month of February. All four geographical regions of the country saw price increases.

First-time buyers edged back into the market, making up 31% of February sales compared with 26% the year before. Investors, however, pulled back, accounting for just 16% of sales, down from 21% last year.

All-cash sales, however, remained relatively steady at 32% of sales, down just slightly from the year before. Cash is usually favored by investors, so this suggests, given the drop in investor sales, that more owner-occupants are using cash.

From FastCompany:

Housing market map: Zillow once again downgrades its 2025 home price forecast

On Tuesday, Zillow economists published their updated forecast model, projecting that U.S. home prices, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index, will rise 0.8% between February 2025 and February 2026. That’s another downward revision. Last month, their 12-month forecast projected a 1.1% increase in U.S. home prices, and the month before that, they expected a 2.9% increase.

“The rise in [active] listings is fueling softer price growth, as greater supply provides more options and more bargaining power for buyers,” wrote Zillow economists on Tuesday. “Potential buyers are opting to remain renters for longer as affordability challenges suppress demand for home purchases” 

Not only do Zillow economists predict soft national home price growth this year, but they’re also predicting that the housing market will only see 4.1 million U.S. existing home sales in 2025. That would mark the third straight year of suppressed sales of existing homes. For comparison, in pre-pandemic 2019, there were 5.3 million U.S. existing home sales.

Zillow economists added that: “As the home-buying season nears, Zillow anticipates a temporary boost in sales during the spring, followed by a seasonal slowdown. However, with little relief expected from mortgage rates, existing home sales are likely to remain below pre-pandemic levels. Until mortgage rates fall—to improve housing affordability— some downward pressure on home sales is expected to persist.”

From Yahoo Finance:

Not just condos: Florida’s housing market is softening, especially along the southwest coast

Florida’s pandemic-era housing boom is finally starting to fade.

For-sale inventory in the state has reached the highest levels on record, and homes are staying on the market longer even as peak homebuying season kicks off. In many parts of the state, prices are starting to fall.

The turning market comes as migration to the Sunshine State slows, and a combination of hurricane fears, rising insurance and tax bills, and a steady supply of new construction has given buyers more leverage. While the state’s condo market has been in correction ever since new building laws took effect in the aftermath of the 2021 condo collapse in Surfside, Fla., the market for single-family homes is also starting to soften.

“Inventory and time on market has been dramatically increasing,” said Ben Grieco, a real estate agent in the southwestern city of Port Charlotte. “It’s not like buyers have left by any means, but there’s just so much to choose from that it’s really pushing prices down.”

Listings across the state usurped pre-pandemic levels in January, according to Realtor.com. As of last month, there were more than 168,000 homes active on the market. Residences in Florida spent an average of 75 days on the market, up 13 days from a year earlier, according to Redfin.

As of January, single-family home prices were falling the fastest in a cluster of cities on the southern Gulf Coast. Prices in Punta Gorda are down nearly 8% since January 2024, according to Zillow data. Thirty miles south, in Cape Coral, home prices have dropped 5.6% year over year.

Prices in North Port and the high-end, golf-focused city of Naples have also fallen by more than 3% in the last year.