Sorry about your retirement, it’s for the kids

From Fortune:

The new problem for millennial parents in the Northeast: the million-dollar starter home

They waited out the pandemic boom. They saved longer, rented longer, delayed longer, and watched the typical first-time homebuyer age climb to a record 40. Now, the buyers who did everything right are running into a new problem: The Northeast just became the fastest-growing region for million-dollar starter homes in the country.

It’s especially imperfectly timed for millennials entering their peak household spending years and beginning to form their own families (or at least try to). 

Zillow report published Monday counts a record 242 U.S. cities where starter homes cost $1 million or more—nearly triple the 80 cities that cleared that mark before the pandemic, and up from 226 one year ago.

The share of first-time buyers has fallen to half the historical norm. For millennial parents in the Northeast—now in their late 30s and early 40s, often with kids, hunting for more space—the numbers have a specific shape.

New Jersey had one million-dollar starter city before the pandemic. Now it has 26. New York used to have 12; now it has 41. The two states added 15 cities to the list in the past year alone—faster growth than anywhere else in the country. The New York City metro now leads all with 63 cities where a starter home runs $1 million or more.

That growth didn’t happen in a vacuum. Six of the 10 most competitive housing markets in the country are in the Northeast, per Zillow’s 2026 analysis, a region where new construction has chronically lagged and inventory deficits run deepest. California still leads the raw count with 105 cities, but the Northeast is where the crisis is actively spreading.

“A housing shortage a decade in the making ran headlong into intense demand with mortgage rates at historic lows, driving up home values at a record pace,” Zillow senior economist Kara Ng wrote. For Northeast buyers, those forces have compounded.

Posted in Economics, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate, Where's the Beef? | 58 Comments

Suck it USA, NJ is the Best

From Visual Capitalist:

The States Where Housing Prices Have Surged the Most (2021–2026)

Posted in National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 41 Comments

Totally normal

From NJ.com:

Tiny Jersey Shore ‘tear-down’ hits the market for $2.3 million 

This listing for a home in North Wildwood doesn’t have any pictures of the inside of the home.

It says that it’s a three-bedroom, one-bathroom, 760-square-foot house that was built in 1950. But none of that was factored into its $2.299 million list price.

It’s the 59-by-100-foot lot and the location that make this property worth the asking price, said Michael Hrubos of Keller Williams Realty Jersey Shore, the listing agent.

“It really is a tear down house because the new construction market in North Wildwood is booming and because of the lack of listings and the proximity to the beach,” he said.

The home is catty-corner from a popular surfing beach and within a short walk of bars and restaurants. 

“There are no other lots [in North Wildwood] where you can tear down a house on an [oversized lot] this close to the hot spots of the bars and the beach. It simply does not exist,” Hrubos said. “The price might seem high but it’s not when you figure in the inventory and other new construction pricing. You have to look at the true supply and demand.”

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate | 70 Comments

…or Texas

From Mansion Global:

SpaceX’s New Millionaires Have the Power to Reshape the Texas Real Estate Market

SpaceX’s historic IPO is turning its employees into millionaires—who could pool their windfall from the public offering to purchase nearly half the property in San Antonio, the closest major metro area to the company’s Starbase, according to a Redfin report released Friday.

Current and former SpaceX employees, who comprise roughly 10% to 15% of the company’s shareholders, already own an estimated $150 billion to $250 billion in total equity. With SpaceX selling 555,555,555 shares for $135 each, employees are estimated to make roughly a combined $120 billion post-taxes, the report said. 

The jackpot could cover every house in McAllen, Texas, a smaller city 80 miles west of the SpaceX base, with $74 billion to spare. Employees could also collectively purchase 15% of the properties in Houston, one of the country’s most prominent housing markets just a few hours east of San Antonio. 

In Los Angeles—where SpaceX was founded in 2002, and based for more than two decades—employees could purchase 5% of all homes using their equity.

Chen Zhao, Redfin head of economics research, said that while the calculations are hypothetical and don’t reflect a realistic use of IPO funds, they illustrate “the staggering scale of wealth” that the sale creates. 

“Some employees will spend their windfalls on housing, and some will spend it on other things—but large liquidity events like this do have meaningful effects on local real estate markets,” Zhao said. “As employees cash out stocks and gain purchasing power, some will choose to buy a house for the first time, while others will upgrade their existing homes or buy vacation or investment properties. That increases demand in communities where these companies are based and often drives up prices.”

Posted in National Real Estate, Where's the Beef? | 31 Comments

Screw SpaceX, buy a house in NJ

From NJ.com:

N.J.’s scorching housing market among hottest in nation. See how fast homes are selling.

New Jersey’s housing market is heating up with the late spring temperatures. 

And the Garden State stands above more than 90% of the nation when it comes to how briskly its homes are selling.

At a typical value of $569,000, homes statewide sold within a median of 33 days in May, according to the latest figures from Realtor.com. It puts the Garden State fourth in the nation among states with the fastest-selling homes. 

The Northeast in general remains hot. Only Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island saw homes fly off the market faster. 

All three had a median listing price of over $500,000.

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate | 58 Comments

Big enough to care?

From the Motley Fool:

The Ultimate Guide to SpaceX’s IPO

Should You Buy SpaceX on Friday?

Short answer: Not yet. The history of big IPOs in booming markets makes this one of the easier calls we’ve had to make.

SpaceX (SPCX+0.00%) may be the most exciting IPO in history, yet we definitely will not be buying on Friday.

Let us explain. We’ll start with a market view.

The Nasdaq is trading above the 90th percentile across every valuation since its founding in 1971. Growth stocks (like SpaceX) have been cheaper 90% of the time over the last 55 years.

Why does market pricing matter here?

Because large, dramatic IPOs offered in expensive markets have a remarkably consistent track record of giving patient investors multiple times to buy at a much better price. 

SpaceX does two things better than anyone on Earth.

First, it launches rockets with otherworldly effectiveness. More than 80% of everything that humanity puts into orbit flies on a SpaceX rocket, with 99% rates of success. Nobody else comes close. 

And its Starlink business, beaming broadband through satellite internet to places that have never had it, is a rule-breaking gem. It doubled subscribers last year, grew revenue 50%, and generated cash-flow margins near 63%. (Re-read that sentence!) Hundreds of millions of rural households worldwide still lack reliable internet access. Starlink has a dramatic growth opportunity, with spectacular economics.

These two businesses are special.

SpaceX’s IPO valuation relies pretty heavily on the company’s AI business. Here, Musk and team are renting a Memphis data center to Anthropic and Alphabet‘s (GOOG2.48%) Google for about $26 billion a year combined. That’s incredible. But when you read the fine print, you learn that either company can cancel the contract with 90 days’ notice.

Furthermore, the AI business operates in a competitive space and is burning through cash faster than the rockets and Starlink businesses can make it. Overall, SpaceX lost $4.28 billion in a single quarter and $41.3 billion since its founding.

Posted in Economics | 50 Comments

Get it while the gettin’s good

From the NY Post:

NY and NJ property owners jacking up short-term rents for World Cup tourists by as much as 1,500%

Local property owners are scoring — as they jack up short-term rents for soccer tourists during the World Cup.

Some owners are demanding 1,500% more per night than normal as locals look to capitalize on footie fanatics flocking to the region for matches that kick off at MetLife on June 13 and finish there on July 19. 

A Post review of properties on popular short-term rental websites showed nearly all listed spaces, from one-bedroom matchboxes to luxe multi-bedroom mansions, were at least doubling the cost per night on days specifically tied to match dates.

“Everybody’s trying to cash in,” said Jonathan Miller, director of markets for StreetMatrix.

“Instead of welcoming it seems like an opportunity to gouge visitors at a mass scale,” said Miller.

“I’m not against people trying to seize the moment because this doesn’t happen very often, its just the degree has been somewhat shocking,” he said.

A six-bedroom rental in West New York 15 minutes from the Meadowlands surged 1,539% — to $14,185 on the night before the championship match from its usual nightly rate of $865, according to AirBnB.

One successful NYC realtor called out the gouge as the byproduct of both greedy landlords and delusional renters.

“Sure people want to make a profit, but $865 to $14,185 is absolutely an absurd travesty,” said Staten Island real estate Maven Tom Crimmins, who with his partner and wife Suzanne, employ 125 agents with Crimmins Realty.

“It’s a shame and also a sham. Greed at it’s best!” the former NYPD officer said, adding, “I truly believe that it is unethical. Landlords get completely out of control and greedy when events like the World Cup hit town, but on the other hand the person paying the ridiculous daily rent is outright crazy and needs psychiatric help!”

A four-bedroom in West New York, NJ, 20 minutes from the stadium, is going for $12,675 for a one-night stay from July 18-19 — up 774% from its $1,450 price just three days earlier, AirBnB listings show.

Another four bedroom home in Bayonne, NJ, with amenities including a spa and wellness center, shot up more than 640% — renting for $11,100 per night during the week of the Final while listing for only $1,500 after the World Cup ends, according to Booking.com. 

A luxury estate that sleeps 13 in Morris Plains, NJ, which is just a 12 minute drive from MetLife, is charging over $9,500 a night during the third week of June during the tournament. That same house normally rents for just $3,500 a night, according to Expedia. 

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate, NYC, Where's the Beef? | 138 Comments

The Boom Loop

From MSN:

San Francisco homebuyers have officially lost their minds

It was late January when Bill Law realized something had shifted in San Francisco’s real estate market. That month, the longtime tech worker and his wife submitted an offer on a $1.3 million home in the Sunset District, a west-side neighborhood that boasts good schools and easy access to both the ocean and Golden Gate Park. Hoping to stand out from the house-hunting scrum, the couple offered $300,000 above the asking price. They didn’t come close. The winning bid of $1.86 million easily eclipsed their offer.

“I definitely feel the frustration in the real estate market,” Law tells me. “Since January, it’s just — it took off like a rocket.”

Half a million dollars may sound like a stunning sum for a bidding war — unless you’ve paid any attention to San Francisco’s housing market over the past six months. In a city long on AI and chronically short on housing, some homes now trade for millions of dollars above their asking prices. Once-underrated neighborhoods like the Outer Sunset and Outer Parkside now provide fog-soaked backdrops for truly unhinged pricing contests. No major city has seen home values rise faster over the past year, helping the San Francisco metro reclaim its title as the most expensive housing market in the country.

The City by the Bay has seen many a boom-and-bust cycle, but seasoned San Franciscans will tell you that this one feels different. Recency bias? Maybe. The current AI-fueled bonanza, though, is notable for both its concentration of extreme wealth and the speed with which it’s minting new fortunes. With a wave of IPOs looming, including OpenAI, SpaceX, and Anthropic, overnight millionaires and billionaires are poised to deliver more shocks in the coming months.

It’s a head-spinning turnaround from the last time San Francisco real estate drew national headlines. In the depths of the housing slowdown in 2022 and 2023, Bay Area home prices were caught in the dreaded “doom loop” as newly mobile white-collar workers fled to home offices in cheaper cities like Austin or Denver. Census Bureau data shows the city’s population shrank by more than 60,000 people.

It’s tempting to write off San Francisco’s comeback as an AI-fueled anomaly, an extreme case divorced from most Americans’ reality. The city may stand alone in many respects, but the experience of buyers and sellers there also offers a neat encapsulation of the forces shaping the whole of America’s real estate market: the K-shaped economy, employers’ return to the office pushhomebuilding hurdles, and, of course, the AI-bubble-or-maybe-not-a-bubble. San Francisco’s “boom loop” is just getting started — and a version may be coming to a city near you.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 37 Comments

Softer Market?

From the Realtors via MSN:

Home listing prices post sharpest drop in 9 years as sellers face reality check

Sticky mortgage rates and rising inflation fueled by the Iran war are testing the limits of the spring housing market’s resilience, but there is a silver lining for buyers as home prices in May experienced their steepest annual drop in at least nine years.

The national median listing price has been falling for seven consecutive months, and in May it plunged 2.4% year over year to $429,500, representing the sharpest annual decline in Realtor.com® data going back to 2017, according to the latest monthly housing market trends report.

May also saw the median price per square foot, measuring a home’s value relative to size, shed 2.5% from a year ago—a downward trend reflected in 35 of the 50 largest markets.

Meanwhile, the number of homes under contract—signaling that a buyer’s offer has been accepted but the deal is not yet finalized—rose for a sixth straight month, jumping 4.3% compared with a year ago.

“Those two trends are not a contradiction,” explains Realtor.com® senior economist Jake Krimmel. “Sellers are pricing to sell rather than pricing to test the market. Buyers, despite rates remaining higher than expected, are still showing up when prices are within budget.” 

Posted in Economics, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 71 Comments

Bring all the data centers to NJ

From Let’s Data Science:

AI Boom Drives San Francisco Home Prices Higher

Reporting from multiple outlets shows San Francisco’s housing market has accelerated alongside the region’s AI-driven wealth surge. The New York Times, citing Redfin data, reports the San Francisco metro-area median home sale price rose more than 10% year over year in April to $1.7 million. Fortune and Redfin data show a sharper divergence since the launch of ChatGPT in 2022: luxury home prices climbed 13.4% while lower-end prices fell 3.8%, according to a Redfin analysis reported by Fortune. Local reporting includes on-the-ground anecdotes: Business Insider recounts a buyer offering $300,000 over asking who still lost to a $1.86 million winning bid, and NBC Bay Area quotes a listing agent saying, “AI is definitely bringing buyers back.” Fast Company and Realtor.com data show median down payments in the Bay Area rose to 35% for luxury purchases in 2025. Editorial analysis: This collection of reports documents a wealth-concentrated bounce in demand that is pushing bidding intensity and liquidity requirements higher in San Francisco.

The regional housing surge is tied in reporting across national and local outlets to new wealth tied to the artificial-intelligence sector. The New York Times, citing Redfin data, reports the San Francisco metro-area median home sale price rose more than 10% year over year in April to $1.7 million. A Redfin analysis reported by Fortune found that since the release of ChatGPT in November 2022 luxury Bay Area home prices climbed 13.4% while prices in the most affordable ZIP codes fell 3.8%, according to Fortune’s reporting of Redfin’s data and commentary from Redfin economists. Business Insider provides a purchaser anecdote in which a couple offered $300,000 above asking and lost to a $1.86 million winning bid, and NBC Bay Area quotes realtor Natalie Ortega saying, “AI is definitely bringing buyers back.” Fast Company, citing Realtor.com, reports luxury buyers in the greater Bay Area made a median down payment of 35% in 2025, up 6.6 percentage points from earlier years.

Posted in Economics, Employment, National Real Estate, New Development | 42 Comments

Bye Bye NJ

From RENJ:

Samsung leaving New Jersey, leaving Englewood Cliffs campus vacant once again

A high-profile office campus in Englewood Cliffs will be vacated for the second time in two years, with Samsung Electronics America reportedly set to move its headquarters to Texas.

According to multiple outlets, the technology giant has told employees it will shift operations to Plano, where it already has multiple divisions. That means most of the roughly 1,000 workers at 700 Sylvan Ave. in Englewood Cliffs will be reassigned to the new headquarters, according to The Asia Business Daily and other reports, a decision that would come just a year after Samsung moved into the sustainably designed, 325,000-square-foot campus while pledging to build strong ties with local officials and residents.

The company has called New Jersey home for more than 40 years, making the news especially tough to swallow for the business community. That included more than three decades in Ridgefield Park before it opted to move to the former Unilever U.S. corporate office in Englewood Cliffs, giving the building new life after the latter moved to downtown Hoboken.

Reports say a small number of Samsung employees will remain in New Jersey to support local operations.

“We are preparing for the relocation with the goal of completing the move within this year,” a company official told The Korea Times, speaking on the condition of anonymity. “After a thorough review, we will finalize plans for headquarters operations and workforce allocation.”

The Asia Business Daily noted that Plano already houses the office responsible for Samsung’s mobile and network businesses, adding that the company also has a semiconductor plant in Austin and a new foundry plant coming online in nearby Taylor. The report cited Texas’ growing appeal to businesses due to tax benefits and lower real estate costs, perks that have attracted the likes of Tesla and Oracle in recent years.

Longtime critics of New Jersey’s business climate were quick to voice their frustration.

“Today’s announcement from Samsung less than a year after it opened its new New Jersey headquarters, and on the heels of Exxon’s recent corporate departure from the Garden State after 144 years, is not surprising, but it is no less sad,” said Michele Siekerka, CEO and president of the New Jersey Business & Industry Association. “These are the results of decades of anti-business policies in the state. With New Jersey maintaining the highest corporate tax rate in the nation, by far, and its national reputation for business unfriendliness through regulation and other costs and burdens, we have seen our Fortune 500 companies go from 22 in 2018 to 15 in 2025.

Posted in Employment, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate | 72 Comments

Pandemic home prices were a scam

From Fortune:

Pandemic relief funds accidentally broke the housing market by helping scammers inflate local home prices nearly 6%, study finds

The housing market ended up bearing a disproportionate cost from successful scammers who filed fraudulent claims filed under the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). Homebuyers in 2020 and 2021 had to compete with fraudulent recipients of PPP funds who effectively treated the cash as an artificial stimulus and used it for discretionary spending, leaving every competing U.S. homebuyer on the hook.

According to a study by researchers at the University of Texas at Austin, published this week in the Journal of Financial Economics, about $800 billion in small business relief loans, known colloquially as the PPP loans, was doled out during the pandemic’s early days, and some of those funds were used in fraudulent ways.

“In a horse race, pandemic fraud is one of the largest and most robust factors explaining house price appreciation during COVID,” the study’s authors wrote.

Areas where PPP fraud was rampant in the first years of the pandemic could expect home prices 5.8% higher on average relative to comparable markets with less grifting. 

Several factors have pushed up housing prices in recent years. One was that many Americans simply had more money to spend, their bank accounts healthily insulated by curtailed travel and entertainment expenses. In the early days of the pandemic, housing demand was further boosted by stimulus checks, loan relief programs, and extended unemployment payments that helped pad household incomes—including those wielded from PPP loans.

The study sampled 18,761 ZIP codes across the country, covering over 90% of the U.S. population, and matched individual areas with places known to have a higher concentration of fraudulent PPP activity. Previous work by the same authors found suspicious PPP loans were geographically concentrated. For instance, in Cook County in Illinois, home to Chicago, the share of loans considered suspicious was 31.7%, as compared to only 8.8% in Manhattan, and 6.1% in Los Angeles County.

The authors then matched high-fraud ZIP codes to areas with fast-appreciating home prices. After testing against other economic variables that may have contributed to higher costs, and comparing housing activity in high-fraud ZIP codes to low-fraud ones in the same county, the researchers found illegitimate PPP loans to be one of the core drivers of housing prices.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 34 Comments

NJ delays new flood rules

From the NJ Monitor:

NJ Taps Brakes On New Flood Elevation Rules

The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection will delay the implementation of controversial new flood rules adopted on the final day of Gov. Phil Murphy’s administration by a year to give regulators more time to make amendments.

The move to walk back regulations that set new elevation requirements, expanded state flood maps beyond federal counterparts, and created new rules for wetland protection and stormwater management was announced Friday and follows a joint legislative hearing last month where local officials and business groups decried them as unduly restrictive.

“This extension gives us time to meaningfully engage with local leaders, communities, and other stakeholders across New Jersey to get this right,” Gov. Mikie Sherrill said.

The announcement extends a grace period that will allow projects to continue under old rules if they submit complete permit applications before July 20, 2027. As written, the rules’ grace period was due to lapse July 20, 2026.

The delay will prompt a 60-day public comment period that will include a public hearing after the rulemaking proposal is published in the state register in June, the department said.

The Murphy administration already pared down the Protecting Against Climate Threats: Resilient Environments and Landscapes — more succinctly, PACT REAL — rules last July before adopting them in January.

Senate President Nicholas Scutari (D-Union) in February introduced a concurrent resolution that would have declared the regulations out of step with lawmakers’ intent. On Friday, he said the rules could have foisted costs onto homeowners making repairs and welcomed the pause.

“We can find ways to address environmental challenges and protect our residents without imposing burdensome requirements on the people who live and work in our communities,” Scutari said.

Business groups and some local officials have railed against the new flood rules for years, arguing they would raise costs and leave some communities without developable land to meet affordable housing obligations imposed by state law.

“We’re encouraging the administration to basically start from scratch so we can accomplish the administration’s goals of providing resiliency and environmental protection while also helping to streamline the permitting process so that we can grow our economy in a sustainable manner,” said Ray Cantor, deputy chief government affairs officer for the New Jersey Business and Industry Association.

Posted in Economics, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate, Shore Real Estate | 37 Comments

Pay whatever it takes to live in NJ

From the NY Post:

‘The Netflix effect’ just made a New Jersey home sell for $500K above asking price

What happens when Netflix builds a massive studio in suburban New York City? It sends local house prices through the roof.

NJ.com reports a five-bedroom residence in Little Silver, N.J. traded hands last week for $2.6 million — a hearty $500,000, or 24%, above its $2.1 million asking price.

The reason? It’s “the Netflix effect,” according to local real-estate professionals. The streaming giant is building a $900 million studio in Monmouth County — where Little Silver stands — which has fueled demand for living there, and prices to boot.

“I did expect it to go for over asking,” Stacie Bender, of Compass, told the outlet of the home, which stands about 50 miles from Midtown Manhattan. “I thought it would go for $2.3 million or $2.4 million. I was thrilled for the clients when it went for $2.6 million. And we had a strong back-up offer.”

However, a Netflix executive is not the new owner of this home.

Bender added the Netflix effect is driving even more competition in a local market where inventory is scarce. That said, the property lured in 40 groups to two open houses after listing on March 25. There were also around 40 private showings.

The first offer came in the day after showings began. Within six days of hitting the market, it entered attorney review.

“Originally people thought Netflix was going to bring more support staff. But we’re seeing job listings with salaries of $750,000-plus … and people looking for homes over $2 million,” Bender told the publication.

Beyond the forthcoming Netflix studio, this house also stands near prime Jersey Shore destinations, such as Long Branch and Asbury Park.

Posted in Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate, South Jersey Real Estate | 89 Comments

I wouldn’t give up my 2.25%

From the Monmouth Journal:

Thousands Of New Jersey Homeowners Caught In Low Mortgage Rate Limbo

With today’s mortgage rates far higher than the pandemic-era lows, many existing homeowners face a painful trade-off: sell and move, but give up their low monthly payment; or stay put, even if their current home no longer fits their life.

In other words, the house may no longer fit, but the mortgage rate still does.

A new survey by Calgary Homes, a real estate platform, which polled 3,002 homeowners, set out to measure the scale of this “mortgage lock-in effect.” The research looked at how many homeowners would like to sell, downsize, relocate, or buy a more suitable home, but are choosing not to because they do not want to give up their existing mortgage rate.

The survey found that 42 percent of New Jersey homeowners who want to sell are unwilling to do so because they want to hold onto the lower rate they secured previously. At a state level, this equates to an estimated 37,300 homes effectively caught in mortgage-rate limbo.

The findings suggest that the housing market is not just being shaped by affordability, inventory, or buyer demand. It is also being shaped by homeowners quietly asking themselves a very modern question: “Is moving worth losing my mortgage rate?”

For many, the answer appears to be no.

Posted in Mortgages, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 182 Comments