Are the kids alright?

Posted on March 9, 2026 by grim

From NJ1015:

The Shore summer job is back — but will Jersey kids show up?

Something happened this week that made me smile. Wawa announced it’s hiring hundreds of workers for the summer of 2026 at more than 35 Jersey Shore locations. And honestly, it hit me in a few ways at once.

First, the practical part — there are real opportunities right now with a great company for hard-working South Jerseyans who are ready to make a move. But the other thing it did was remind me that summer is not as far away as it feels. The snow has melted. The daffodils are cracking through. The motorcycles are back weaving between lanes. And hiring is happening all up and down all 141 miles of Jersey Shore coastline.

It’s not just Wawa. State parks are looking to fill more than 800 seasonal positions — lifeguards, naturalists, maintenance staff, visitor services — with starting pay around $16.50 an hour and paid training provided. Boardwalk amusement parks like Casino Pier and Morey’s Piers are hiring kids as young as 14. And from there, the list goes on — boardwalk food stands, pizza joints, fudge shops, novelty stores, ice cream windows, sundry shops. Every single one of them needs people. The Shore machine runs on summer workers, and the engine is warming up right now.

Here’s the part that doesn’t get talked about enough. Over the past few decades it’s become harder and harder to fill Shore positions with local young people. The gap has been filled — quietly and significantly — by international college students here on J-1 visas, arriving from Europe and beyond to work the summer season. It became a system that worked. And now that system is suddenly uncertain, with federal cuts threatening the State Department programs that support it. Shore business owners are genuinely worried. One operations director put it plainly — the volume of jobs in such a short window simply can’t be filled by local workers alone. At least not the way things have been going.

But here’s what I’d say to any Jersey kid or young adult who’s on the fence: the opportunity has always been there. It’s there right now. And I hope they see it — not just for the money, but for everything else that comes with it. The skills you take home from a Shore summer have a way of staying with you for the rest of your life. The memories do too.

The Shore is hiring. Go get it.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Shore Real Estate | 56 Comments

Play it again, Sam

Posted on March 8, 2026 by grim

From the Mortgage Point

Relisted Homes Hit Highest January Level Since 2016 

Nearly 45,000 U.S. homes that were delisted in 2025 were relisted for sale in January 2026, the highest January figure dating back to 2016.

That figure is a record 3.6% of homes that were on the market in January, a new report from real estate brokerage Redfin revealed.

Home delistings rose last year because it was, and remains, a buyer’s market, Redfin said.

The brokerage noted that buyers retreated because of high housing costs and economic uncertainty, which meant sellers far outnumbered buyers. That gave negotiating power to buyers who were in the market, with some of them scoring homes that had lingered on the market for far less than the asking price, Redfin said.

Not all sellers were willing to negotiate, however.

Redfin noted that many chose to delist and try again later instead of cutting their price—especially if moving wasn’t urgent and/or they needed to get a certain price to break even after buying the home at the peak of the pandemic market.

Delistings hit a record high of 112,788 in December.
…
More than a third (36.1%) of homes relisted in January were listed for less than their original list price (the price they first listed at last time), Redfin noted.

That’s the highest January share in records dating back to 2016, Redfin said.

“If you delisted your home last year after cutting the price from $550,000 to $525,000, don’t try to relist it now at $550,000,” said W.J. Eulberg, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in Milwaukee. “Buyers are savvy. They know how long your home has been on the market, how many times it has been delisted and relisted, and your original asking price.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 54 Comments

Highest in the nation!

Posted on March 7, 2026 by grim

From the Courier Post:

NJ is nearly the highest-taxed state in the nation, study finds

New Jersey is the second-least tax-friendly state in the U.S., according to a ConsumerAffairs report.

The state was found to have one of the biggest tax burdens. Only Hawaii had a higher tax burden than New Jersey.

“What really stands out about New Jersey is that it’s not just one tax that’s high — residents are feeling it across the board, whether it’s income taxes, property taxes or the taxes built into everyday purchases,” said Dayna Edens, media relations manager at ConsumerAffairs, an advocacy group that conducts reviews and studies.

One of the biggest tax burdens comes through the state’s property taxes. New Jersey homeowners face the highest property tax burdens in the country, with average property taxes equal to 9% of income.

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate | 90 Comments

February Market in NNJ

Posted on March 6, 2026 by grim

From the Record:

How North Jersey’s real estate market performed in February 2026

The real estate market in February remained relatively consistent with trends we’ve seen in recent months, with housing inventory recovery stalling — despite the number of active listings continuing to increase — and home prices remaining relatively stable. But mortgage rates did reach a three-year low, a sign that market conditions could be improving for buyers.

February marked the 28th straight month of inventory growth nationwide with a 7.9% year-over-year increase in active listings. The rate of this growth has slowed for nine consecutive months and inventory remains 16.8% below pre-pandemic levels, said Realtor.com’s Monthly Housing Market Trends Report.

The number of new listings also increased 2.4% year-over-year and 10% month-over-month, which Realtor.com said is in line with typical seasonal patterns. Listings typically spent about 70 days on the market, or four days longer than last year, marking the 23rd straight month of homes taking longer to sell on a year-over-year basis.

The national median listing price was $403,450, down 2.1% from last year, and 15.5% of listings had price reductions in February.

In New Jersey, there were 13,201 active listings in February, up 11.39% from the previous year, but down 2.93% from January 2026. And of those active listings, 6,476 were newly listed in February, Realtor.com market data showed.

The Garden State had a median listing price of $529,000, down 2.93% from the previous year and up 2.02% from January 2026. There were 2,210 price reductions during that time —8.76% more than the previous year and 19.59% more than January 2026 — and listings stayed on the market for about 45 days, Realtor.com said.

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 119 Comments

Jersey Forecast

Posted on March 5, 2026 by grim

From NJ.com:

N.J. real estate values are shifting. Search your ZIP code for the spring forecast.

Home values across the Garden State are expected to increase by spring, according to Zillow’s latest real estate forecast.

That’s the good news.

The bad news?

An analysis of over 500 ZIP codes in the state showed that most will see home values increase by less than 2.5% by April. 

Somers Point, in Atlantic County, will see the biggest leap in home values at 2.2%.

Meanwhile, home values in 28 ZIP codes are expected to decrease by spring. ZIP codes, 07114 and 08321 — in Newark and Fortescue, part of Downe Township in Cumberland County — will see the most significant decreases at 1.1%.

But the market is shifting — in a good way.

In New Jersey, the drop in mortgage rates will be “a good moment for both [sellers and buyers] in the spring,” said Michael DePalma, a broker and manager at DePalma Realty in Millville. 

“The stuff that’s been sitting will sell, and buyers are going to have their mortgage rates going down,” he added.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 129 Comments

It’s different here

Posted on March 4, 2026 by grim

From the Realtors:

The 5 Strongest States Leading the ‘Two-Speed’ Housing Market

Across the country, prices rose a modest 0.7%. But parts of the Northeast are bucking the broader slowdown.

Cotality reports that New Jersey and Connecticut remain hot—and recorded the highest annual appreciation in the country, both above 5%. 

“This growth is fueled by steady demand around metro areas like Newark and Camden and a shift toward more affordable pockets in smaller markets where supply constraints persist,” says Boesel.

“Newark is insane—it’s like mythic proportions,” says Brendan Da Silva, a Newark real estate agent with Keller Williams. “It’s a hot area—Lionsgate is building a movie studio here. It’s a very competitive market, with lots of bidding wars. I put a Newark house up on the market for $750,000 last week, got seven offers, and the highest was $850,000. It’s not stopping.”

Home prices in New Jersey are up 5.6% year over year, with a median listing price of $519,999.

Home prices in Connecticut are up 5.26% year over year, with a median listing price of $480,000.

“In lower Fairfield County, especially Greenwich and Stamford, the market is still extremely competitive,” Greenwich real estate agent Susan Isaak, of Coldwell Banker, tells Realtor.com. “Inventory remains the biggest driver. In most price points, particularly under $2 million, there isn’t enough supply to meet demand. When a home is priced accurately, we’re still seeing multiple offers, often all cash without contingencies.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 110 Comments

What if Gateway doesn’t happen?

Posted on March 3, 2026 by grim

From NJ Spotlight News:

Op-Ed: Messing with Gateway endangers the post-pandemic boom

As companies call employees back to the office, workers are responding with surging attendance. But just as this post-pandemic comeback gains momentum, federal funding uncertainty for Amtrak’s Gateway Program threatens to undercut the very infrastructure that makes this recovery — and future growth — possible.

Under court order, the U.S. Department of Transportation restored federal funds tied up since October by President Donald Trump’s administration. The rail project’s stability, though, is far from certain.

Gateway, a $16 billion initiative to modernize 10 miles of the Northeast Corridor rail route from Newark to Manhattan, hangs in the balance. A legal tug of war over the last several weeks threatens the long-term vitality of the Tri-State region’s economic collaboration.

If work halts permanently, as the president has threatened, the consequences will ripple far beyond train schedules or passenger safety. Any interference puts the region’s mixed-use commercial real estate industry in the crosshairs, because many transformational, transit-centric developments are tied to Gateway improvements. Further, the private and public construction markets are interconnected – so potentially, the chopping block awaits not only infrastructure and construction jobs, but also the future homes, offices and hospitality assets that our members develop in the region.

Gateway has benefits for both sides of the Hudson River. It will jolt the cleanup and redevelopment of countless underused properties. These investments will stimulate well-positioned commercial real estate projects, creating jobs and generating significant fiscal contributions to local, state and national economies.

In New Jersey, the commercial real estate industry logged 24.7 million square feet in industrial leasing activity, with the fourth quarter of 2025 logging just shy of 5 million square feet. Much of this activity is within the logistics sector, whose workers will benefit greatly from Gateway’s improved service.

Residential permits have surged in recent years, with North Jersey leading in new homes production. Manhattan office leasing increased by more than 25 percent in the fourth quarter, and leasing volume in 2025 hit a six-year high.

Financial and technology firms scooped up office space across Manhattan and Brooklyn, with mega deals signaling increased demand in high-quality spaces that lure employees back to the office. The commercial real estate industry rebound was driven largely by private sector job growth, which increased by 2% in New York City, compared to less than 1% across the country.

All of this progress, however, relies on infrastructure that is well past its time — specifically, the Hudson’s North River tunnels, which are more than a century old and sustained significant damage from Hurricane Sandy in 2012. That link, used by Amtrak and NJ Transit, carries around 450 trains daily, moving hundreds of thousands of residents, employees and visitors. It operates far beyond what it was designed to handle, and is the source of breakdowns and delays that can cripple the route from Boston to Washington, D.C.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate, NYC | 105 Comments

Buyers Walking

Posted on March 2, 2026 by grim

From Redfin:

Nearly 1 in 7 Home Sales Are Falling Through, a Record For This Time of Year

Nearly 40,000 home-sale agreements nationwide were canceled in January, equal to 13.7% of homes that went under contract that month. That’s up from 13.1% a year earlier, and the highest January share in records dating back to 2017.

This is based on a Redfin analysis of MLS pending-sales data. The data is seasonal; typically, there’s a higher share of cancellations at the end of the year and a lower share in the spring. That’s why we compare this January to past Januarys. Please note: Homes that fell out of contract during a given month didn’t necessarily go under contract that same month. This data is subject to revision. 

Sales are falling through at a higher rate than in the past largely because it’s a buyer’s market, with hundreds of thousands more U.S. home sellers than buyers. That gives buyers negotiating power; they may back out during the inspection period if they see a home they like better or an inspection issue arises. 

Another major reason buyers are backing out of deals is financial uncertainty. While housing costs have come down from their peak, they are still near historic highs. Some would-be buyers are canceling purchases because they’re getting jittery about buying a house when they’re anxious about things like layoffs, tariffs and geopolitical tensions.

“More buyers are backing out,” said Alin Glogovicean, a Redfin Premier agent in Los Angeles, where 16.7% of home purchase agreements were cancelled in January, up from 15% a year earlier. “They’re second-guessing the wisdom of making a huge purchase when there’s a fear in the back of their mind about the state of the economy and the uncertainty of their finances. That’s particularly true when they’re first-time buyers who don’t have equity from a previous home sale, and they’re using most or all of their savings on a down payment.”

In San Antonio, more than one in five (21.2%) home-purchase agreements were canceled in January, the highest share of the 47 major U.S. metros Redfin analyzed. It’s followed by Atlanta (18.5%) and Cleveland (17.9%). Riverside, CA (17.5%) and Orlando, FL (17.3%) round out the top five. 

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 105 Comments

Will AI destroy the housing market?

Posted on March 1, 2026 by grim

From Benzinga:

AI Boom May Be Creating Hidden Risks In Housing Market

Artificial intelligence is driving massive productivity gains — but it may also be creating hidden risks in one of the most important pillars of the financial system: housing.

Mortgage markets rely on a simple assumption — borrowers will remain employed and continue earning stable incomes. AI-driven job disruption could challenge that foundation.

In their recent note, Citrini Research warns that the rapid displacement of white-collar workers is forcing markets to confront an uncomfortable question: “Are prime mortgages money good?”

Unlike previous housing crises driven by speculative lending or interest rate shocks, this potential risk stems from structural changes in employment itself.

White-collar workers account for a disproportionate share of economic activity. According to the report, the top 10% of earners account for more than half of all consumer spending, making their financial stability critical to housing markets.

As AI replaces higher-paying jobs, many displaced workers are forced into lower-paying roles, reducing their ability to sustain prior spending levels. Even borrowers who remain current on mortgage payments may cut discretionary spending to compensate for income uncertainty.

This creates a delayed but potentially powerful effect on housing demand and home prices.

The broader concern is structural. Mortgage underwriting models assume income stability over decades. AI disruption challenges that assumption.

As Citrini Research explains, many borrowers “borrowed against a future they can no longer afford to believe in.”

If AI continues to reshape labor markets, housing could become one of the most important transmission channels between technological disruption and financial stability.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 79 Comments

Overflow will save us all

Posted on February 27, 2026 by grim

From NJ1015:

NJ real estate market predicted to heat up. Here’s why

If you live here in NJ, this probably won’t surprise you at all.

A new real estate forecast says the housing markets most likely to heat up in 2026 include the outskirts of New York City.

That list specifically calls out Northern New Jersey right alongside Long Island, the Hudson Valley, and Fairfield County, Connecticut.

In other words, once again, Jersey is the overflow valve for a lot of people.

The prediction is pretty simple. More companies are pulling people back into the office, at least part-time. So the “work from anywhere” dream is fading for a lot of folks. That means people still want space and sanity, but they also need to be close enough to commute. Enter New Jersey.

…And it’s not just about work.

A lot of New Yorkers are leaving the city because they’re exhausted by the politics, the quality-of-life issues, and yes, what some are calling the Mamdani factor. Whether it’s crime, schools, taxes, or just feeling like the city isn’t what it used to be, people are voting with their feet. And many of them are landing right here.

If you already own here, that probably means higher values. If you’re trying to buy, buckle up. More competition is coming, especially in commuter-friendly towns.

New Jersey keeps ending up in these “hot market” lists, not because we’re trendy, but because we’re practical. We sit right next to one of the biggest cities in the world, and we offer things that the city can’t like space and stability, and (even though we’re the most densely populated state), the breathing room.

Posted in Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate, NYC, Unrest | 221 Comments

Chi’s New Thread

Posted on February 26, 2026 by grim

As requested.

From the NYT:

The Housing Market Is Tilting Back Toward Buyers

Rukmini Callimachi, who covers real estate, polled five housing economists to report this story.

On the windswept coast of North Carolina, Ron Hertrich has spent months trying — and failing — to sell his parents’ 40-year-old beach house. He scrubbed off the old paint and repainted the walls a warm “shiitake beige.” He replaced the furniture, including a glass-top dining table with rattan legs, with something more modern.

When that didn’t work, he offered a $10,000 cash “incentive” that a prospective buyer could use as they pleased.

Despite all this, the condo — which sits 100 yards from the water line — has become a monument to the shifting tides of the real estate market. After just two showings in two months, his real estate agent advised him to take new pictures in an effort to relaunch the listing this spring.

The same thing happened hundreds of miles away in Atlanta, where Aimée Berry, 56, put her furniture in storage and lived in a perpetual state of readiness, only for a total of six people to come see her one-bedroom condo in six months.

“It was depressing,” she said, explaining that she too was advised to take her home off the market.

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 63 Comments

Case Shiller Dips

Posted on February 25, 2026 by grim

From Housingwire:

Case-Shiller data shows real home price returns turned negative in 2025

Annual home price growth continued to cool at the end of 2025, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index released on Tuesday. 

The national home price index came in at a reading of 327.36 in December, reflecting a 1.3% year-over-year increase, down from the 1.4% yearly increase recorded in November. On a monthly basis, prior to seasonal adjustment, the national index was down 0.3%. 

According to the release, inflation outpaced home price growth throughout the second half of 2025, reversing a decade-long trend of positive real returns on home prices. Overall, national home prices grew just 1.3% in 2025, marking the weakest full-year gain since 2011, when prices dropped 3.9%. Additionally, this is 5.3 percentage points below the 6.6% 10-year annual average. 

“Two structural forces have reshaped the market over recent years: mortgage rates and inflation. The 30-year mortgage rate closed 2025 at 6.2%, well above the 4.8% 10-year average and a sharp contrast to the 3.9% average that prevailed from 2016 through 2020,” Nicholas Godec, the head of fixed income tradables and commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement. “ Meanwhile, annual inflation for 2025 came in at 2.7% — modestly below the 3.1% 10-year average — but still outpaced home price appreciation by 1.4 percentage points, effectively eroding real home values for most owners. This marks a notable reversal: Over the prior decade, national home prices outpaced inflation by 3.7 percentage points annually, a dynamic that has quietly reversed, with real home price returns turning negative in June 2025.”

The 10-city index also recorded slower annual home price growth in December, jumping 1.9% on a yearly basis to 357.32, while the 20-city index rose 1.4% year-over-year, the same as a month prior, to a reading of 336.89. Prior to seasonal adjustment, both indexes were down 0.1% month-over-month. 

Of the 20 cities indexed, Chicago reported the highest annual price gain at 5.3% in December, followed by New York (5.1%) and Cleveland (4.0%). At the other end of the spectrum, Tampa reported the largest annual decline dropping 2.85%, followed by Denver (-2.06%) and Phoenix (-1.53%). 

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 143 Comments

Philly still hot? Or is the market mix shifting?

Posted on February 23, 2026 by grim

From Bucks County Today:

Greater Philadelphia Tops National Housing Market Price Growth in January

Greater Philadelphia saw the strongest home price growth among 40 major metro areas in January, with prices rising 8.6 percent year over year, writes Ryan Mulligan for the Philadelphia Business Journal.

In January, the region’s median home price increased to $380,000, up from $350,000 a year earlier. According to a recent report from Homes.com, this growth is more than three times the national increase of 2.8 percent, with the national median sale price at $374,900.

The report follows Zillow’s prediction that the Philadelphia region would be one of the top ten housing markets this year.

However while home prices increased, the number of sales declined significantly compared with January of last year, with the housing market impacted by both the usual winter slowdown and low inventory levels.

Greater Philadelphia saw home sales decline by 8.6 percent in January compared to last year, with total sales dropping to 3,621 from 3,963 in January 2025. The month-to-month decrease was even steeper, falling 33.8 percent from December’s 5,471 sales.

Meanwhile, active listings rose 8.4 percent compared to a year ago, reaching around 10,000 at the end of January. 

Posted in Demographics, Economics, New Jersey Real Estate, Philly | 132 Comments

Thank goodness NJ is so wealthy

Posted on February 22, 2026 by grim

From NJ1015:

Corporate giants cut thousands of NJ jobs — and more may be coming

Effective today, 1,319 employees of Verizon have been laid off in New Jersey.

The company is one of several big-name employers that are losing workers. A full list is below.

Verizon’s executive leadership and corporate functions have remained in Basking Ridge, while its official headquarters are in New York City.

In November, the telecommunications giant announced 13,000 layoffs worldwide. A spokesman for Verizon on Friday said that New Jersey workers were notified of their layoffs that month.

The Verizon cuts were listed with the 2025 New Jersey Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification as being out of Basking Ridge. The layoffs, however, are statewide and extend beyond that location.

Another big New Jersey employer, Merck, announced 204 layoffs. Some of those cuts, largely out of the pharmaceutical giant’s Rahway complex, will be effective in March and May.

As for new mass layoffs, Target, JP Morgan Chase and Walmart have announced several hundred more New Jersey job cuts, as seen below.

Posted in Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 60 Comments

Headline of the century

Posted on February 20, 2026 by grim

From WHYY:

High property taxes, high prices — and still buyers: What New Jersey’s housing market looks like right now

New Jersey’s property taxes and home values are among the highest in the nation. Nevertheless, data released in January shows demand for housing held steady in 2025, and many real estate experts expect demand to increase this year.

Jeff Otteau, chief economist for Otteau Group, Inc., said interest rates are expected to continue to drift lower, which will make it easier for people to buy homes. He said lower interest rates will also increase the number of homes being sold.

“Because the average interest rate for homeowners is around 4%, with interest rates that had risen as high as 7.8%, those existing homeowners, even though they wanted very much to sell their house and move on to whatever was next, they didn’t want to give up the advantage of that low interest rate on the home that they’re in now,” he said.

According to a report released by New Jersey Realtors, the median sales price across all property types rose by 5.4% last year to $525,000.
…
Beverly Brown Ruggia, the financial justice program director at New Jersey Citizen Action, said the Garden State’s home affordability crisis is significant.

“The gap between what is available and what people can afford is astronomical. We don’t have enough affordable homes for people to rent or purchase,” Ruggia said.

For many New Jerseyans there is no rational relationship between what they earn and what they have to pay for housing, she said.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 151 Comments