Tear it down

Posted on October 5, 2026 by grim

From NJ.com:

Jersey Shore house being sold for $4M comes with an option: move in, or tear it down

A home in the North Beach section of Long Beach Island is listed for $3.899 million — and it’s being marketed as a tear-down.

Built in 1988, the five-bedroom, three-bathroom, 2,756-square-foot contemporary sits on a 100 by 100 foot lot.

“When you’re talking about LBI, most properties are 50 by 100 feet,” said Bonnie Wells of Coastal Living Real Estate Group, the listing agent. 

With the larger lot size, someone could build a 4,000 to 5,000 square foot home, which is better suited for today’s multi-generational families that want more space. “With a 5,000 square foot home you can get that eighth bedroom, the home theater, the gym,” she said. “That makes it a resort style house.”

The home is being marketed as it currently exists for $3.899 million. Or for $5,999,000 with a new construction, six bedroom, five-full and one-half-bathroom home by D. Finelli Construction, which includes a pool and a lanai.

Posted in Housing Bubble, Shore Real Estate | 40 Comments

Doesn’t seem too outrageous. Am I just numb?

Posted on October 3, 2026 by grim

From NJ.com:

Tiny Jersey Shore house sells above asking price after 12 offers

A tiny cottage in Ocean Grove just closed for what is likely to be a record price.

The 340-square-foot studio-style cottage was listed for $399,000. It got 12 offers and closed for $465,000 or $1,368 per square foot. The typical home in Ocean Grove sells for about $700 to $900 per square foot.

“To me that was the thing that was like ‘oh. my gosh.’ That really said it to me more than the price it sold for,” said Thea Bowers of Re/Max Gateway, the listing agent. “That’s the most I’ve ever seen something sell for and I’ve been doing this for 20 years.”

The cottage was listed on August 20. More than 150 people showed up for two open houses the first weekend it was on the market. 

Bowers said she was initially surprised by the response — until she heard everyone who came through the open house talking about it. It was known as the cute house by the beach, and people said they had been walking by and admiring it for years. “It seems it had a following and I didn’t even realize it,” she said.

Posted in Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate, Shore Real Estate | 91 Comments

Seven and a half percent

Posted on October 2, 2026 by grim

From NBC:

Mortgage rates hit highest point since 2023 as Treasury yields rise

Mortgage rates are at their highest point in nearly three years as turmoil in the bond market continues.

U.S. Treasury bonds continued selling off Thursday, driving yields on the most closely watched bonds to their highest levels since 2002.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose as high as 5.34%. Over the three months that ended Wednesday, the 10-year yield had its largest quarterly surge since 1994. The 30-year yield spiked to as high as 5.69%. 

As bonds sell off, their yields rise.

The surge in the 10-year yield is driving U.S. mortgage interest rates higher, too. Late Thursday, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.54%. While that was down slightly from Wednesday, it was still near its highest point since late 2023.

Yields are spiking for a number of reasons; a major driver is inflation stemming from rising energy prices as a result of the wars in Iran and Ukraine. 

On Thursday, the average regular gas price in the U.S. remained 47% higher than it was in late February when the Iran war began. At the same time, diesel prices have soared 70% over the same period. 

While diesel is not often used by consumers, it is used widely in the shipping and farming sectors, meaning higher fuel costs can easily trickle down to store shelves.

Last week, S&P Global reported that “price pressures intensified in September” for businesses at the fastest rate in four years.

On Thursday, another report echoed similar concerns. The Institute of Supply Management released its September report on U.S. manufacturing. While it said the industry remained steady, it also flagged “a notable increase” in costs.

Posted in Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate, Unrest | 83 Comments

We’re not Florida

Posted on October 1, 2026 by grim

From the NY Post:

Once America’s hottest housing market, popular state is now the hardest place to sell a home 

If you’re planning to cash out in Florida, you might want to pack your patience. 

The Sunshine State is the single worst place in the country to sell a home right now, according to a fresh ranking from Underwood Law Firm that pits 48 states against each other on how brutal their markets are for sellers.

Florida sits at the bottom of the barrel with a staggering 206,508 homes up for grabs, the biggest glut of any state studied. 

The typical property there lingers for 73 days before a buyer bites, and bidding wars have all but vanished. Only 10.9% of homes fetched more than their asking price.

This essentially means buyers in Florida are calling the shots.

The firm crunched Redfin Data Center figures across seven yardsticks. 

Those include median sale price, total homes sold, median days on market, annual price swings, active inventory, the share of homes selling over asking and the share of listings that had to slash their price.

Each factor carried a different weight depending on how much it matters to sellers. The scores were then blended into a single difficulty rating, and states were lined up from most punishing to most forgiving.

Texas grabbed the No. 2 slot. The Lone Star State has 180,524 homes on the market and a median wait of 68 days. Nearly a quarter of sellers there, about 23%, were forced to cut their price, putting Texas near the top of the study for markdowns.

South Carolina landed at No. 3. Homes in the Palmetto State sit for a median of 74 days, and 22.1% of listings took a price chop. A mere 13% sold above asking.

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 72 Comments

Build build build

Posted on September 30, 2026 by grim

From NJ.com:

N.J.’s plan to build thousands of homes on state land goes through a massive change

Gov. Mikie Sherrill announced Tuesday that her administration will build 20,000 additional housing units on state-owned land in New Jersey, doubling an existing plan. 

Last year, New Jersey Transit launched the Land Plan, which will deliver up to 20,000 new homes on its properties. Sherrill said her administration has since identified enough additional state land to build another 20,000 homes.

It found 15 new sites between Atlantic City and Jersey City that could bring the total number of homes built to 37,200 to 42,800 homes, according to a Housing Strategy and Progress Report released Tuesday.

“I knew we could go even bigger,” she said as the keynote speaker during the event’s luncheon in Atlantic City. 

The Housing Strategy and Progress Report is the work of the Housing Governing Council created by Executive Order No. 17 in April. It aims to accelerate housing production and bring down costs. 

The report found that New Jersey must build 350,500 to 406,500 more homes over the next 10 years to have enough homes for new families and keep pace with the state’s economic growth.

Shovels are already in the ground for projects on transit properties in Woodbridge and Hoboken, Sherrill said. 

“New Jersey should build in places people want to live, on land that’s already developed but under utilized,” the Democrat said. “Think empty strip malls, parking decks. Our strategy is to deliver new investment to cities like Trenton and Atlantic City.

Posted in Demographics, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics | 80 Comments

Tunneling begins!

Posted on September 29, 2026 by grim

From NJ.com:

Massive machine starts carving first new tunnel under the Hudson River in 116 years

The moment that some officials and commuters never thought would come happened Monday morning when two governors turned on a 500-foot-long machine to begin drilling the Gateway rail tunnel at the base of the Palisades in North Bergen.

Gov. Mikie Sherrill and Gov. Kathy Hochul flipped a ceremonial switch from the podium and the massive green cutter head on the first of two gigantic tunnel boring machines began slowly spinning. 

Public officials expressed relief that it finally started and determination to finish the job, despite an ongoing court challenge by the Trump Administration to stop Gateway funding.

“I’ve dreamed about this day for a long time,” said Sherrill as she named members of congress, state and agency officials from both sides of the Hudson who got Gateway this far. “It’s hard to take it all in because this has been such a fight.”
…
The Gateway project eliminates a long standing bottleneck for commuters and long distance rail travelers on Amtraks’ Northeast Corridor line, the nation’s busiest passenger route.

The rail line and tunnel serves a region responsible for 20% of the nation’s gross domestic product.

“Generations not yet born will benefit from this work,” said U.S. Senator Cory Booker, D-NJ, who’s remarks drew an impromptu chant of U-S-A from construction workers. “Today we are redeeming the dream of America, making this nation show the world America is still strong and we still do great things.” 

Both governors paid tribute to the army of 10,000 union construction workers who have and will continue to labor in all types of weather to build the tunnel.

Two of the 500-feet tunnel boring machines stood side by side in the trench under Routes 1&9, with one poised to begin actual drilling “in a couple of days” after testing, Gateway officials said. 

Because of the hardness of the rock in the Palisades, the boring machines will progress 30 feet a day and take one year to complete drilling two tunnels under them, said James Starace, GDC Chief of Program Delivery. 

Posted in New Development, New Jersey Real Estate, NYC | 75 Comments

NJ net new development slowing

Posted on September 28, 2026 by grim

From NJBIZ:

NJ construction spending rises 19% as starts stall

Construction spending has increased by 19% in New Jersey this year. However, new construction starts remain nearly unchanged, up by just 1%.

Delivering the figures during the Associated Construction Contractors of New Jersey Fall Convention in Long Branch, Otteau Group Inc. Chief Economist Jeffrey Otteau underscored the significance of the increase, “In the worlds of economic analytics, anything more than single digit is a big deal.”

He attributed the divergence between dollars going out and shovels going in the ground to existing projects already under construction, in some instances over multiple year periods.

Projects are stalling due to elevated interest rates’ adverse effects on profitability, Otteau said, noting that applies to most sectors. “When someone is building a market real estate development project, let’s say multifamily properties, they typically are building to what we would call a 6% cap. … But mortgage rates on commercial real estate lending projects right now are averaging about 6.3%. So yeah, your project will be profitable until you need to pay the bank, and you’re going to give them all of your net income back, and you’re not going to have any profit left with interest rates having risen to where they are.

“And so at that point, it really makes no sense to go into the ground and start your construction sooner rather than later because you’re really not going to be profitable after you take care of your debt servicing,” Otteau said.

He added, “And in the meantime, you could put that capital that you’re going to invest in the construction spend into a treasury bill and get four or 5% return on your money, no risk. You don’t have to manage that project.”

Civil and infrastructure starts were on pace to reach $1.6 billion (down 38%) this year. Otteau said investments in the meds and eds space is predominantly driven by the former, as the latter contends with declining enrollment due to a confluence of factors, including falling birth rates, rising tuition costs and reduced foreign student enrollment.

Another “reason that universities are struggling, and we expect will be failing,” Otteau said, “some of them are on the cusp of bankruptcy and going to auction for their real estate.”

At the other end of the spectrum, commercial and industrial starts stood as outliers. The former is up by 224% to $2.79 billion. Offsetting that jump, Otteau cited a $1.8 billion data center project reportedly underway in Kenilworth. Industrial also had a notable increase, rising 187% to $916 million. He attributed growth in that sector to its recovery along with a coming wave of e-commerce and cold-storage facilities.

Posted in Employment, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate | 43 Comments

Coastal flooding batters the shore

Posted on September 27, 2026 by grim

From NJ.com:

N.J. nor’easter: Videos, photos show widespread flooding across Jersey Shore, other areas of state

Strong bands of wind and rain from the nasty nor’easter left many areas of New Jersey under water Saturday morning and into the afternoon.

South Jersey and the Jersey Shore have been hit especially hard, with flooding reported in Avalon, Avon-by-the-Sea, Barnegat, Berkeley Township, Manasquan, Pleasantville, Point Pleasant, Stafford Township and Stone Harbor, among others. 

Another round of flooding is expected later today, when the next high tide cycle arrives. Forecasters note the tides are already running higher than normal because of today’s full moon.

The township of Avalon shared photos on Facebook of flooding that occurred Saturday morning, during high tide. 

Social media videos showed washed-out roads in Surf City, heavy flooding in Stone Harbor, and a restaurant with high water in Margate.

Posted in Shore Real Estate | 28 Comments

You can’t make it here

Posted on September 26, 2026 by grim

From the NY Post:

NYC ranks fifth-hardest metro for first-time homebuyers — 7% mortgage rates are squeezing them even more

Buying a starter home in New York was already a stretch for the average household.

Now mortgage rates are back above 7% — adding yet another hurdle for would-be homeowners already contending with stubbornly high prices and a shortage of homes for sale.

The New York metropolitan area is the fifth-hardest place in the country to get on the property ladder, according to new research from personal-finance company Achieve.

An entry-level home in the metro costs about $489,359, while the median household earns $99,155.

Assuming a 10% down payment and keeping mortgage payments to 30% of gross income, Achieve calculated that a household would need to earn $114,380 a year to comfortably afford that home — 15.4% more than the typical household actually makes.

And that calculation comes as borrowing costs are heading in the wrong direction.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage climbed back above 7% this week after years of languishing inflation, further eroding the purchasing power of buyers who need financing.

For buyers, however, the problem is much bigger than the mortgage rate alone.

Appraiser Jonathan Miller, of StreetMatrix, told The Post that an acute shortage of homes for sale is preventing the normal market correction that might otherwise give buyers some relief.

“When we think about affordability, I think the influence of inadequate inventory is more powerful on the affordability topic than actual rates themselves,” Miller said.

Normally, Miller explained, a sharp increase in borrowing costs would cause sales to fall, inventory to build and prices to soften.

This time, that last part isn’t happening.

“Mortgage rates are over 7%, and prices are still rising, right? That’s not logical to many people,” Miller said. “But the reason it’s not logical is because the limited inventory is distorting everything.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, New Jersey Real Estate, NYC, Unrest | 56 Comments

Free $50k?

Posted on September 25, 2026 by grim

From Newsweek:

First-Time Homebuyers Could Get $50,000 Under New Bill

First-time homebuyers of any income level could get up to $50,000 in federal funds for a down payment on a house, under a newly proposed bill introduced in the Senate this week.

The Homeownership Promise Act, introduced Wednesday by Oregon’s Senator Jeff Merkley, a Democrat, and co-sponsored by another Oregon Democrat, Senator Ron Wyden, would allow U.S. homebuyers to open “Homeownership Promise Accounts” and save on their first-time home purchase.
…
The proposed bill would establish a new standard for first-time homebuyers in the U.S. For any one dollar saved, the federal government will contribute $5. Essentially, any first-time homebuyer who saves can get a five times matching down payment grant, up to $50,000.

This matching down payment grant would be set up by the U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and will be called a “Homeownership Promise Account.”

These accounts must be opened at participating Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFIs) certified by the Treasury Department.

Under the draft, employers and nonprofits would also be able to contribute on an individual’s behalf to help them achieve their savings goals even faster. After a few years, these combined funds could be used to purchase a median priced home, the bill states.

“Working families should be able to afford a decent home in a decent community,” Merkley said in a statement. “For millions of young Americans, homeownership remains further out of reach than ever before, keeping them from establishing the foundation that has enabled middle-class families to build equity for generations.”

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, Politics | 71 Comments

Sorry about the rates, suckers…

Posted on September 24, 2026 by grim

From Reuters:

US fixed 30-year mortgage rate jumps to 7.12%, MBA says

The rate on the most popular US home loan rose last week to its highest ‌in more than two years, after the Federal Reserve lifted ‌short-term interest rates to combat inflation, and rising oil prices drove up Treasury yields ​that underpin residential borrowing costs.

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage jumped 15 basis points to 7.12% in the week ended September 18, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday. It was last higher in May 2024.

Mortgage rates ‌have risen more than ⁠a full percentage point since joint US-Israeli strikes against Iran began pushing up the global price of oil ⁠in late February, putting the squeeze on prospective homebuyers and a chill into the US housing market.

Mortgage rates track US Treasury yields, which are ​sensitive to ​oil prices and the threat they ​pose to inflation, which has ‌been running above the Fed’s 2% goal for 5-1/2 years.

Last week the Fed increased its policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 3.75%-4.00% range to put inflation on a “timelier” path to 2%, and nearly all Fed policymakers projected at least one more ‌rate increase by the end of ​this year. Traders are also betting on ​further Fed rate hikes.

The rise ​in mortgage rates last week led to a decline ‌in refinancing and home purchase ​applications, the MBA said, ​and drove more borrowers into adjustable-rate mortgages, which offer lower upfront borrowing costs than fixed-rate mortgages and reset after a number of ​years to whatever ‌the going rate is at the time. ARMs accounted for ​9.8% of mortgage applications last week, the MBA said.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 47 Comments

NJ jobs disappoint in July

Posted on September 22, 2026 by grim

From NJBIZ:

New Jersey loses 1,700 jobs in August

New Jersey lost 1,700 nonfarm jobs in August, according to preliminary estimates released Sept. 17 by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The state’s unemployment rate dropped by 0.1 percentage point from July to 4.3%.

That resulted in a seasonally adjusted employment level of 4.36 million nonfarm jobs.

Four of the nine private industry sectors recorded gains in August:

  • Leisure and hospitality +3,400
  • Construction +1,000
  • Trade, transportation, and utilities +600
  • Other services +500

Sectors that recorded job losses were:

The private sector gained 200 jobs from July.
…
In his review of the latest numbers, Steindel said, “The soft figures on jobs is a disappointment, following the very large drop in July … One might have expected some sort of correction, and August’s fairly strong 162,000 increase in jobs for the nation as a whole might also have suggested a better number for New Jersey.”

He continued, “Thus, despite the ongoing good news on the unemployment front, the overall report was, on balance, rather discouraging.”

Year over year, New Jersey recorded an employment loss of 9,900 nonfarm jobs; the private sector recorded a loss of 13,100 jobs.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 115 Comments

NJ real estate tax revenues rise

Posted on September 21, 2026 by grim

From NJ Spotlight News:

NJ gets a revenue boost as home prices continue to rise

As Gov. Mikie Sherrill’s administration distributes a new round of state-funded Anchor benefits, New Jersey’s latest tax collection report highlights a different side of the housing affordability equation.

Tax receipts from New Jersey’s realty transfer fee, which is paid by sellers, increased by more than 18% during the month of August, the Department of the Treasury reported last week.

Driving that revenue increase was high median home prices, as well as continued growth in home sales, Treasury officials said.

Also helping lift state revenue collections in August was a tax on high-dollar real-estate transactions overhauled last year by then-outgoing Gov. Phil Murphy.

The new name for what used to be known as the mansion tax in New Jersey is the “graduated percent fee.” This is assessed when a sales price crosses the $1 million threshold, and it has generated nearly $70 million in revenue since the July 1 start of the current fiscal year, according to Treasury’s data.

While housing sales may be sagging at the national level as mortgage rates remain high, in New Jersey, there’s still a strong real-estate market, said Douglas Tomson, chief executive officer of the Trenton-based New Jersey Realtors organization.

“It is not what you read in the national (media),” Tomson said. “New Jersey’s an outlier. We have the strength of our economy, people still want to move here, and there’s bidding wars on properties.”

“I don’t see that changing for the foreseeable future, here in New Jersey,” he said.

In all, state tax collections totaled $3.2 billion in August, with major sources of revenue, including the income, business and sales taxes, all recording year-over-year increases, Treasury officials said.

On a percentage basis, total tax collections were up 14% for the fiscal year that began July 1, as the end of August, according to Treasury’s data.
…
The realty transfer and graduated percent fees have yielded nearly $130 million in revenue so far this fiscal year, according to Treasury’s data.

New Jersey began collecting additional tax revenue from sales of properties worth over $1 million in the early 2000s. But last year’s tax-policy changes added higher fees that are now being charged on sales crossing the $2 million, $2.5 million, $3 million and $3.5 million thresholds.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 100 Comments

NYC is the place to be

Posted on September 20, 2026 by grim

From StreetEasy:

NYC homes selling above asking at highest rate in four years

Despite recent mortgage rate jumps, this summer has remained particularly hot for home sales in the NYC market. More than one in five (21.8%) NYC homes sold above their latest asking price this August, up from 20.5% a year earlier. In July, 25.0% sold above asking, the highest since 2022 and significantly above 19.6% in July of last year. This market heat is a result of pent-up demand from NYC buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines, in the city’s often highly competitive rental market.

Resilient demand has also been supporting contract activity. Of the 21 weeks between April and July, 18 weeks recorded year-over-year increases in new contracts, including 12 weeks with growth exceeding 10%. Contract signings peaked mid-summer, with monthly volume rising 3.6% in April, 9.7% in May, 15.7% in June, and 15.0% in July.

However, the momentum softened ahead of Labor Day following typical seasonality. In the last week of August (8/24 – 8/30), 359 homes entered contract across the city, compared to 397 in the first week (8/3 – 8/9). In total, 1,666 new contracts were signed in August, down 5.4% from a year ago. Contract volume was more stable in Manhattan with a 0.9% decline, but fell 10.9% in Brooklyn and 7.9% in Queens.

Strong demand absorbed listings, pushing inventory down 5.0% year over year to 15,324 in August. The citywide inventory has been declining annually since February due to strong sales this year. In Manhattan, which led the growth in new contracts through this summer, inventory fell 11.2% to 7,032 homes. Inventory was more stable in Brooklyn, declining just 0.5% to 4,016 homes. By contrast, buyers can expect more options in Queens, where inventory rose 3.3% to 3,231 homes. New developments continued to lift inventory in Queens, in addition to strong increases in new co-op listings.

With fewer homes available, the market moved faster. Across the city, homes entering contract in August spent a median of 77 days on the market, four days fewer than a year ago. Median time on market fell by six days to 93 days in Manhattan and by three days to 69 days in Brooklyn. Queens was the only borough to see an increase in median time on market, up six days to 73 days, as inventory increased from a year ago.

Posted in Housing Bubble, NYC | 34 Comments

Pending home sales dip in the northeast

Posted on September 18, 2026 by grim

From HousingWire:

NAR pending home sales index down 4.7% year over year

Pending home sales rose slightly in August, jumping 0.3% from a month prior, according to data published Thursday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). 

NAR’s national Pending Home Sales Index came in at a reading of 71.2 in August. An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year NAR examined this data. 

Despite the monthly jump, the August 2026 index reading marks a 4.7% decline in pending home sales compared to a year ago. 

Regionally, NAR’s data shows that pending home sales fell on a monthly basis in the Northeast (-4.2%) and the Midwest (-1.6%), resulting in index readings of 61.6 and 72.1, respectively. In the South (2.3%) and West (3.0%), however, pending home sales rose month-over-month to index readings of 86.2 and 54.3, respectively. Year-over-year, pending home sales fell in all four regions with the South posting the smallest decline at 3.8% and the West posting the largest at 6.7%.

Posted in Economics, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 100 Comments