From ATTOM:
CALIFORNIA AND NEW JERSEY LOCALES TOP COUNTIES FACING GREATEST HOUSING MARKET HEADWINDS
ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property data, and real estate analytics, today released its latest Special Housing Risk Report spotlighting county-level housing markets around the United States that are more or less vulnerable to declines, based on home affordability, equity and other measures in the first quarter of 2025. The report shows that California and New Jersey had high concentrations of counties considered most at-risk.
The data shows that 23 of the 50 most at-risk markets were in California (14) and New Jersey (9). Risk was determined by affordability, proportion of seriously underwater mortgages, foreclosures, and unemployment rates.
In a sign of the robust post-pandemic housing market, the number of foreclosures and proportion of homes with seriously underwater mortgages—meaning the combined estimated balance of loans secured by the property was at least 25 percent more than the property’s estimated market value—remained low throughout much of the country during the first quarter of the year. But that stability, combined with several years of aggressive buying, has contributed to escalating prices that make it increasingly hard to purchase a new home in some markets.
In 109 of the counties ATTOM analyzed, a typical resident would have to spend more than half of their annual income to cover the down payment, mortgage, and other initial expenses for a median-priced home.
“This report highlights a number of market forces that anyone with an interest in their local housing market should keep an eye on,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “Affordability is an obvious concern, but as the data shows, there’s a complex interplay between price, wages, mortgage health, and foreclosure rates that can give even greater insight into where property values are likely to go in the future.”
“There’s no unequivocal metric that can tell you where it’s safe to buy and where it’s risky,” he added. “But taken together these data points show how different parts of the country are performing.”
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The three most at-risk counties in ATTOM’s analysis—Butte, Humboldt, and Shasta counties—cover regions of Northern California that, in addition to contending with challenging market forces, have been ravaged by wildfires in recent years. Rounding out the top five most at-risk counties were New Jersey’s Atlantic and Cumberland counties along the state’s southern coast.
In previous years, counties surrounding New York City, NY have scored among the riskiest in the nation. But that wasn’t the case in the first quarter of 2025. No New York counties landed among the 50 riskiest markets, and although nine New Jersey counties did, they were largely in the central and southern part of the state.